Are voters being deceived about how many people will actually vote in less than two months on abortion? After the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in late June, the media and pollsters went into high gear, using hyperbole and suggesting that all women would vote against the Supreme Court ruling for Democrats this fall as a singular issue. Yet, one surveyor says pollsters are getting American attitudes about abortion wrong.
It makes sense. Many women indeed registered to vote after the ruling ahead of the election. Does that mean all of them planned to vote Democratic or that all women are pro-choice? Does it mean the issue will swing the election and save the Left from what polls suggested just a few months ago would be a shellacking for Democrats?
Are Voters Expressing Contradictory Views?
In an insightful article on Vox, researcher Tresa Undem said it’s difficult to know if the public is divided on abortion. She noted she had studied the subject for about a decade, and what she found was a lot of contradiction from voters.
On the one hand, Undem said focus groups consistently say abortion should only be the last measure for women who have experienced rape, abuse, or a pregnant woman’s life is in danger. Still, she argued that while people overwhelmingly express this view, they also oppose some restrictions on it. So, in her expert view, the researcher stated the current polling models fail to accurately measure voters’ opinions or suggest how people may or may not vote if abortion is their most important issue.
Undem said the problem is the questions pollsters use are flawed. She emphasized they generally fall under one of two categories, legal and illegal. In turn, the simple answer to a simple question is division. So, in the Vox poll she helped create, she tried to eliminate the simplicity by asking the following question: “In 1973 the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not?”
Here was the astonishing answer — among the 34% of those who said abortion should be “legal” in extreme cases, 53% said they did NOT want to overturn Roe.
Undem stated this pattern began to emerge repeatedly. Still, she noted that digging through the data revealed strong emotions attached to the pro-life side, which was opposite of what one might expect.
Keep reading below…
What are the Top Issues?
Polls consistently state that the economy and inflation are the top issues they plan to vote on in November. In a new survey, Republicans and independents said it was their top two issues. If that holds true, the GOP should have a decisive election in the House, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures.
Here’s the kicker: Only 10% of women said abortion was their top issue motivating them to cast a ballot.
So, it would appear the media and Democrats are overplaying an issue that doesn’t matter to most voters who are getting behind in their bank accounts as inflation eats away at their standard of living.
Soon enough, we’ll find out for sure.
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