Across much of America, Democrats are faltering, and Republicans appear to be on the ascendancy. Last summer, Democrats decided to drive three issues to hopeful success; abortion, democracy, and extremism. Yet, polls have consistently said none of those were winning issues, despite oversampling Democrats at the expense of Republican and independent voters.
I have predicted for months that the closer we got to election day, the news would start to get worse for Democrats. It may be that big red wave everyone talked about last spring may be emerging once again, if it was ever really gone. While inflation continues to pound the economy and hurt Americans struggling with rising prices, the value of their money continues to decline. This could make things dicey for Democrats, as the Left ran a nearly two-year campaign alleging Republicans were racist, insurrectionists, and extremists who want to take away rights. It appears Americans aren’t buying what they are selling.
In recent generic congressional polls, voters say they prefered Republicans over Democrats. In September, Gallup asked voters which party would better handle the problem they think is most important. They answered:
- Republicans – 48%
- Democrats – 37%
It was the second-largest advantage for the GOP since Gallup began asking the question in 1946. Just a month earlier, they rated Republicans at 41% and Democrats at 38%. Only 4% said abortion was an important issue to them.
To make matters worse, Democrats are losing parts of their core constituencies. Hispanic voter shifts to the GOP are well chronicled. Still, a new New York Times poll posted shocking results. It said 49% of voters would back a Republican congressional candidate in their district compared to 45% who will support a Democrat. In September, Democrats were leading by one point in the same poll.
It gets worse for Democrats and better for Republicans. Independent women back Republicans by 18%. Interestingly, in September, they favored the Democrats by 14 points. It’s notable considering how much effort they have put into wooing women for the abortion vote. The Times also noted Democratic women were breaking from their party in enough numbers to potentially influence the election.
The Times stated the shift was occurring because the economy was “a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion,” and most voters trusted Republicans to handle it.
A Havard-Harris poll of likely voters conducted on October 12-13 found Republicans hold a 53% to 47% advantage.
On Sunday, even Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) told Democrats to stop talking about abortion and focus on the economy. The problem is voters know who’s been in charge of Washington, DC. They know Democratic policies led to the rise of energy prices and inflation in 2021 under President Joe Biden. On Friday, the government released a new report on inflation showing it at 8.2%. Despite the Federal Reserve’s best effort to bring it down, it’s remaining at record highs.
So, what’s happening?
I’ll call it the “Youngkin Effect.” In the summer of 2021, Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glen Youngkin was down double digits to Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe. As voters began to pay attention to what was happening across the state with education, the economy, and civil rights under Democratic leadership, the polls swung in the last month of the campaign. Ultimately, Youngkin won with a comfortable lead.
After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, I said that abortion wouldn’t be a central issue in the campaign. It would be the economy. Still, some of my liberal friends laughed at the notion, and here we are weeks before the election, and the trendlines are continuing precisely as I predicted.
Still, the election hasn’t happened, and something could change the direction of voters’ minds that could give Democrats the nod on November 8. The reality is it’s the only poll that counts. Yet, the media continues to acknowledge the polls could be wrong and Republicans could win by more significant numbers than they predicted. I believe they know what’s going on, and they’re readjusting the liberal Democratic base’s expectations as they subtly put out an SOS.
While congressional Democrats focused on their pet issues impacting voters negatively over the last several months. Republicans stayed focused on the economy and crime.
Three weeks from today, we’ll find out the ultimate decision when the votes are counted. It could be a very good night for Republicans.
Don Purdum. MPS, Political Analyst
Copyright 2022, ConservativeEra.com
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